Speculating Q4 2010 Blade Server Market Share Results

As I’m anxiously awaiting the Q4 2010 IDC blade server market share results from IDC (due out around the week of Feb 28, 2011), I figured I’d take a risk and see if I can trend what the results may be.  Here’s what I found.

Disclaimer – this post is purely speculation and is not based on any future information that IDC may provide.  This speculation is solely provided for entertainment and should not be used in any other manner than that.

Before I attempted to trend out what Q4 would look like, I had to review what I found in Q1 – Q3 of 2010:

IDC Blade Server Worldwide Market Share (as of 1-20-11)

Next, I chose to add a Linear Forecast Trendline using Microsoft Excel.  Here’s what I came up with:

IDC Blade Server Worldwide Market Share TREND Q4 2010

I have to admit, I don’t have any experience “trending” data, so I’m relying on Microsoft to point me in the right direction, however based on that information, I predict the following Q4 2010 worldwide blade server market share results:

HP: ~53% market share
IBM: ~28% market share
Others (Dell, Fujitsu, etc.): ~19%

Those are my predictions – what are yours?